India's exports climb 4.45% to $413.3 billion in first half of FY26

India’s total exports, both goods and services, registered a robust year-on-year growth of 4.45% in the first half of the fiscal year 2025-26 (April-September), reaching US$413.3 billion, up from US$395.71 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The data, released on 15 October by the Ministry of Commerce, said that the growth was primarily driven by a strong performance in the services sector.

Services exports witnessed a 6.04% increase, climbing from US$182 billion to US$193.7 billion. Goods exports also showed positive momentum, rising by 3.2%, from US$213 billion to US$220 billion during the first six months of the fiscal year.

While the surge in exports helped manage the trade balance, import growth was driven largely by merchandise. Goods imports increased by 4.74%, from US$358.85 billion to US$375.11 billion. In contrast, services imports saw a narrow growth of 0.5%, moving from US$97.68 billion to US$97.75 billion.

The data indicates that a surge in exports, combined with an import increase largely concentrated in merchandise, enabled India to keep the overall trade deficit slightly lower than the previous year.

However, officials noted that the import increase in September 2025 was higher than the corresponding rise in exports for that month.

India's exports showed growth in value to several key destinations during April-September 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Leading the charge was Spain, which saw an increase of 40.33%. This was followed by Hong Kong at 23.53% and China at 21.96%.

The USA, which remains India’s largest overall export partner, grew by 13.37%, and the UAE rounded out the top five with a 9.39% increase.

The United States maintained its position as India’s largest single export destination, followed by the UAE, Netherlands, China, the UK, and Germany.

As per news reports, officials expressed caution, noting a month-on-month dip in exports to the US during August and September, particularly in sectors affected by new tariffs of up to 50%.

The full impact of these duties is expected to become clearer after the release of October trade data.

IMF upgrades India's growth forecast
Speaking to the reporters at an event in New Delhi, Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal highlighted the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) revised outlook.

IMF on 14 October projected a revision of India's growth forecast for 2025, raising it from 6.4% to 6.6%.

The IMF projected this forecast due to a strong first quarter performance, where the GDP hit a five-quarter high of 7.8% (April-June 2025).

This surge, primarily driven by manufacturing, services, and construction sectors, provided enough momentum to more than offset the expected negative impact of the U.S. tariff regime introduced in July.

Minister Goyal added that factors like GST reforms, increased infrastructure investments, and strong consumer confidence are expected to ensure India meets and potentially exceeds the IMF's growth estimates, positioning India as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies amidst a projected slowdown in global growth to 3.2%.