Ocean freight faces oversupply as Freightos sees mixed outlook for 2026

In 2025 the ocean freight market went through another difficult year with a great deal of change. Many factors shaped how container shipping and global ocean cargo performed. The United States started a new trade war in February. It introduced changing tariffs, threats of more tariffs, postponements and sudden policy news. This made shippers uncertain about costs and timing. Importers reacted by moving container bookings ahead or holding off until the tariff picture became clearer. Because of this, ocean freight volumes to the United States were stronger in the first half of the year but weaker in the second half. The uncertainty about consumer demand and the stop-start nature of bookings meant that overall container imports to the United States in 2025 fell by 1.4%.

Global container volumes grow despite weaker US demand
Even though imports to the United States were lower, global container volumes still grew. This growth happened because exporters in the Far East looked for new markets. China, in particular, diversified its export destinations outside the United States. As a result, global container volumes through October 2025 were more than 4% higher than in the same period in 2024. The trade war pushed China to expand exports by value by more than 5% through November despite a big drop in exports to the United States. Ocean container volumes between Asia and North America were down by 2% through October, but demand between Asia and Europe grew by almost 9%. Other regions, such as Africa and Latin America, also showed stronger increases in container shipments.

Clearer tariff environment supports return of seasonality
By the end of the year, the tariff situation in the United States had become clearer. Trade agreements between the United States and several of its major partners had been put in place, and a de-escalation agreement between China and the United States was expected through November 2026. Because of this more stable tariff environment, many in the industry believe that ocean freight seasonality — stronger volumes in the first half and later peaks — is likely to return for North America in 2026.

Legal and policy risks continue to cloud outlook
There is, however, still uncertainty ahead. The United States Supreme Court was expected to decide by July on whether the government had the authority to use a certain economic powers act for country-specific tariffs. If the court were to rule against the government, it could open a period with lower tariffs. In that case, importers might rush to ship more cargo, creating another wave of front-loading. If tariffs were removed entirely and importers believed they would not return soon, ocean freight volumes might increase overall but without sudden changes. If tariffs continued or were reinstated by other means, the impact on freight might be limited, with fewer sharp changes in cargo volumes.

Ocean freight growth expected to diverge by trade lane in 2026
Looking specifically at 2026, analysts expect the overall picture to be similar to 2025 in terms of growth, diversification and differences in volumes between trade lanes. Forecasts suggest that United States ocean imports may contract by about 2% because tariff costs could begin to influence importer decisions and consumer spending more strongly than they did in 2025. At the same time, global container volumes overall are estimated to grow between 2.5% and 3.5%. This means that while some lanes may slow, others will expand and keep global growth positive.

Red Sea diversions reshape capacity and freight rates
Another major influence in 2025 was the ongoing diversion of ships around the Red Sea. Since late 2023, many vessels avoided the Red Sea route and instead sailed around the longer Cape of Good Hope. This diversion absorbed about 9% of global container capacity. Because vessels took longer to complete journeys and arrived back at ports days behind schedule, carriers added extra ships to maintain weekly departures. That effectively reduced available capacity and pushed container freight rates up during 2024. Rates on some key lanes like Asia–Europe and transpacific reached very high seasonal peaks of $8,000 to $10,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) in 2024. Even in lower demand periods, rates stayed higher than usual.

Fleet growth leads to oversupply and weaker rates in 2025
In 2025, even though Red Sea diversions continued, the global shipping fleet kept growing. Many new vessels entered service, and this increase in available ships created oversupply in the ocean freight market. When capacity grew faster than cargo demand, rates fell. Throughout 2025, container prices remained consistently lower than in 2024 — even during months when volumes were relatively strong. On some trade lanes, prices briefly reached levels similar to those in 2023. This oversupply was the result of both new vessel deliveries and cargo demand that was not strong enough to absorb all the available space.

Gradual return to Red Sea routes expected in 2026
Towards the end of 2025, several major carriers began to take careful steps to return to the Red Sea route. These moves increased the likelihood that transits through the Suez Canal and Red Sea would resume in 2026. When ship traffic returns to the Red Sea, the transition is expected to bring congestion and delays at major European ports. As vessels return to the shorter route, there will be a period of vessel bunching — many ships arriving close together — and shortages of containers and equipment at origin ports in the Far East because carriers will want to make the most of shorter travel times.

Capacity management to remain key challenge for carriers
Initially, this disruption could push ocean freight rates higher, especially if the return to Red Sea transits happens during periods of strong demand, such as after the Lunar New Year or in peak season. However, once the congestion settles and schedules normalise, the capacity that returns to the market will add to the already oversupplied situation. This would put further downward pressure on rates. New vessel deliveries will still come in 2026, though at a slower pace than in 2025, and deliveries in 2027 and 2028 are expected to be even higher. As a result, managing capacity will be a central challenge for carriers. They will need to use strategies such as cancelling sailings, keeping ships idle, scrapping older vessels, or slow steaming to balance supply and demand and maintain profitable rates.

Ocean freight enters 2026 amid uncertainty and adjustment
In simple terms, the ocean freight market went through a year of uncertainty and change in 2025. Trade war dynamics and diversions around the Red Sea shaped volumes and prices. Growth continued globally as exporters found new markets, but oversupply from a growing fleet kept rates lower than the previous year. Looking ahead to 2026, a return to more normal seasonality and continued diversification may support growth. At the same time, the return of Red Sea transits and continued vessel deliveries will create both challenges and opportunities for ocean carriers striving to balance capacity and demand.