Maersk lifts 2025 outlook as Asia exports drive Q2 growth

Stronger export volumes from Asia and stable operations boost Maersk's Q2 performance despite ongoing rate pressures.;

Update: 2025-08-07 09:15 GMT

Maersk, the Danish shipping and logistics company founded in 1904, has raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance after reporting strong second-quarter results, largely supported by export growth from Asia and the successful rollout of the Gemini Cooperation network.

The company, which plays a central role in Asia-Europe and transpacific trade lanes, recorded a 2.8% year-on-year increase in revenue to USD 13.13 billion and delivered EBIT of USD 845 million. The performance reflects solid demand out of Asia—particularly China and India—despite global rate volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and disruptions in the Red Sea.

Volumes in Maersk’s Ocean segment rose 4.2% year-on-year, driven primarily by increased export activity from Asia. “Our new East-West network is raising the bar on reliability and setting new industry standards. It has been a key driver of increased volumes and solid delivery of our Ocean business,” said Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk. The Gemini Cooperation, Maersk’s joint vessel-sharing agreement launched with Hapag-Lloyd, was fully phased in by June 2025 and has already achieved reliability scores above 90%.

India and Southeast Asia have emerged as critical drivers of this volume surge. According to Maersk’s regional operations, manufacturing diversification and demand for sourcing resilience have contributed to rising exports of textiles, electronics, and machinery from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

Maersk, which has been investing in warehousing, inland services, and digital capabilities in India and other Asian markets, noted that demand from outside North America continues to outpace expectations. This regional strength underpinned the company’s upward revision of full-year guidance.

Despite sequential EBIT declines compared to the previous quarter, Maersk’s Q2 performance remained broadly in line with 2024 levels. Cost discipline, operational execution, and improved terminal throughput also contributed to the outcome.

In its Ocean segment, revenue climbed to USD 8.57 billion from USD 8.37 billion in Q2 2024. However, freight rates remained under pressure compared to last year. Ocean EBIT was reported at USD 229 million, down from USD 470 million a year earlier.

The Logistics & Services segment recorded a 39% year-on-year EBIT increase to USD 175 million, with EBIT margin improving to 4.8% from 3.5%. Revenue rose modestly to USD 3.67 billion from USD 3.63 billion. Improved productivity and continued cost control drove the profitability gains.

Maersk’s Terminals business posted record volumes and revenue, with throughput increasing by 9.9% and EBIT rising by 31% to USD 461 million. This was supported by added Ocean volumes following the Gemini rollout. The return on invested capital (ROIC) for Terminals reached 15.4%, up from 12.2% in Q2 2024.

Updated 2025 financial outlook
Maersk has revised its expected global container market volume growth from a range of -1% to 4% to a more optimistic 2% to 4%. Underlying EBITDA is now expected to fall between USD 8.0–9.5 billion (up from USD 6.0–9.0 billion), while EBIT is projected in the range of USD 2.0–3.5 billion (up from USD 0.0–3.0 billion). Free cash flow is forecasted at around USD -1.0 billion or higher, with CAPEX guidance unchanged at USD 10.0–11.0 billion for both the 2024–2025 and 2025–2026 periods.

However, the company warned of persistent external risks, including Red Sea disruptions likely to last through the rest of the year, macroeconomic headwinds, and foreign exchange volatility. Maersk disclosed operational sensitivities: for every USD 100 shift in freight rate per FFE, EBIT is impacted by USD 0.7 billion; 100,000 FFE in volume affects EBIT by USD 10 million; USD 100/tonne in bunker fuel price moves EBIT by USD 100 million; and a 10% fluctuation in the USD exchange rate impacts EBIT by USD 100 million.

Capital allocation and strategic focus
Maersk returned USD 864 million to shareholders in Q2 2025, including USD 514 million in share buybacks. Total capital expenditure during the quarter was USD 1.28 billion, up from USD 904 million in Q2 2024. The Ocean segment accounted for the largest share of CAPEX.

With operations in over 130 countries and around 100,000 employees globally, Maersk is reinforcing its position as an integrated end-to-end logistics provider. Its India operations remain a strategic pillar for both Ocean and inland growth, supported by investments in digital infrastructure and warehousing in key industrial corridors.

Maersk is also moving steadily toward its long-term decarbonisation targets, aiming for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. The company defines reduced GHG emissions fuels as those delivering at least 65% lifecycle emissions reduction compared to fossil fuels.

As export momentum continues across Asia and Gemini delivers early reliability gains, Maersk is cautiously optimistic about maintaining operational momentum. The company reiterated its commitment to helping customers navigate disruption while building more resilient supply chains across the region and beyond.

A similar version of the story was originally published on Logistics Update Africa

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