India–US air exports dive after tariff hike, Europe demand rises

India’s air cargo exports to the United States have taken a sharp downturn following the steep tariff hike imposed by Washington at the end of August, according to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data.

After months of steady year-on-year (YoY) growth—fueled in part by US importers diversifying away from Chinese suppliers—India–US tonnages began to weaken when a 25% reciprocal tariff on Indian imports took effect on 7 August. The situation escalated after President Trump announced a further increase, doubling tariffs to 50% from 27 August, citing India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.

In response, shippers scrambled to move cargo ahead of the deadline, pushing India–US airfreight volumes up by +28% week on week (WoW) in week 34, a YoY surge of +35%. But once the higher tariffs kicked in, demand plummeted. Volumes fell by -12% in week 35 and dropped further by -14% in week 36 (1–7 September), highlighting the immediate impact of the tariff escalation. Spot rates also slipped, falling below $4 for the first time in months, reaching $3.99 per kilo in week 36—around -22% lower than the elevated levels seen a year earlier.

By contrast, India–Europe air cargo flows have trended upward in recent weeks, with tonnages in week 36 registering +8% above last year’s levels. Sri Lanka has also emerged as a notable growth lane, with exports to the US up +13% YoY in week 36.

Globally, air cargo markets remained volatile during the period. Worldwide tonnages in week 36 were down by -3% WoW, partly due to reduced volumes from North America tied to the Labor Day holiday on 1 September, as well as disruptions in Hong Kong and Southeast China caused by Typhoon Tapah.

Long-term, shifting patterns are becoming more visible. Over the past 10 weeks, Asia Pacific–US tonnages rose +5% YoY despite declines from China/Hong Kong (down -5% to -10% YoY) and South Korea (down -20% to -30% YoY). Meanwhile, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Thailand have each recorded average YoY growth of around +40% in exports to the US.

WorldACD’s preliminary August data points to a structural shift: freighter capacity is being redirected from China/Hong Kong–US routes to Europe-bound markets. CN/HK–US volumes were flat month on month in August but fell -5% YoY, while CN/HK–Europe tonnages climbed +12%. This adjustment is being reinforced by the suspension of US duty-free de minimis exemptions for commercial shipments since 29 August, another factor expected to shape air cargo flows in the weeks ahead.