Nearly 40% of forwarders lose margin during Chinese New Year

Nearly four in ten freight forwarders lose margin during the Lunar New Year period, a global OntegosCloud survey has found, with internal execution gaps cited as the main cause of weak commercial performance.

The survey of 700 freight forwarding professionals showed that most companies either lose margin or merely hold ground during the Chinese New Year period. Delayed decision-making, poor visibility and weak coordination between internal teams were cited more frequently than capacity constraints or carrier behaviour as factors affecting outcomes.

According to the findings, most forwarders approach Chinese New Year defensively, focusing on limiting damage rather than pursuing growth. Only a small number of respondents said they consistently use the period to gain a competitive advantage over peers.

Oliver Gritz, founder and chief executive officer of OntegosCloud, said Chinese New Year has increasingly become a clear divider between companies that perform well and those that do not. He said market conditions are broadly the same for all forwarders, but differences in preparation and execution determine outcomes.

Chinese New Year falls on 17 February 2026, although factory shutdowns typically last between two and three weeks. The build-up to the holiday is already driving a pre-export rush, pushing container spot rates higher, while air freight markets are also expected to tighten as the shutdown approaches.

When asked about commercial results during the period, nearly 40 per cent of respondents said their organisations typically lose margin while attempting to maintain customer service levels. A further 35 per cent said they usually hold ground without achieving any commercial gains. In contrast, only 18 per cent reported outperforming less-prepared competitors, while just 9 per cent said they are able to turn the disruption into a sustained commercial advantage.

The survey found that internal execution factors play a greater role in determining performance than external market forces. While capacity shortages and carrier behaviour remain structural pressures during the Chinese New Year lead-in, respondents said these challenges affect most forwarders in similar ways.

Instead, internal planning and preparation, the quality of operational data and visibility, and the speed of internal decision-making were identified as the key differentiators. More than 80 per cent of respondents said execution gaps significantly or moderately worsen Chinese New Year-related challenges, indicating that outcomes depend more on how companies respond than on the disruption itself.

Delayed or reactive decision-making, limited real-time visibility into shipments and margins, and poor alignment between operations, pricing and finance were identified as the most common internal breakdowns during the period.

Looking ahead, 90 per cent of respondents said execution will be critical or important in managing predictable disruptions such as Chinese New Year. The findings suggest that as freight markets remain volatile, forwarders that invest in planning, visibility and cross-functional alignment are more likely to outperform their peers over time.