India–Europe container freight rates surge by up to 60% this month

Sarjak Container Lines has warned that container freight rates on the India–Europe trade lane have risen sharply this month, with spot rates jumping by 50% to 60% in just a few weeks. The company said the increase, driven by significant General Rate Increases announced for early December, is affecting budgeting and supply chain stability for Indian exporters.

Supal Shah, CEO of Sarjak Container Lines, said shippers are facing “unprecedented volatility”, with rates moving from USD750 per 40ft container to USD1200 per 40ft container. He noted that the hikes are not a result of a sudden rise in demand but stem from strategic capacity management by shipping lines.

Carriers have been cutting capacity on the India–Europe route through blank sailings and service changes. Blank sailings remain at 8% to 10% of scheduled capacity on the Asia–Europe trade, with Drewry reporting 64 cancellations out of 719 planned sailings over the next five weeks. These measures are helping carriers keep vessel utilisation above 90% and push up spot rates, even as global demand stays subdued.

Shah said that after several weeks of declining rates that neared unprofitable levels, carriers are reducing capacity to restore pricing and improve returns ahead of the 2026 contract negotiation season. The usual year-end demand for European holiday inventory and manufacturers’ efforts to meet annual targets are adding further pressure, helping carriers implement planned increases and surcharges.

A major seasonal factor is India’s table grapes export cycle, which peaks between December and January. Nashik exported 157,000 metric tonnes last season, contributing to a national total of 344,000 MT in 2023–24, with more than 70% sent to Europe. Exporters are aiming for 10% growth this year, but a shorter 2–3-week harvest due to erratic rain could concentrate volumes and tighten reefer container availability. Each 40ft reefer carries 20–25 tonnes, and the influx of premium varieties to Europe has historically pushed reefer rates up by 20% to 30%.

Sarjak advised shippers to plan more actively in early 2026 due to the volatile market and carrier-led pricing. It suggested early bookings, close monitoring of weekly GRIs, the use of short-term fixed-rate contracts, and clarity on surcharges such as ETS and bunker charges, which are often excluded from quoted rates.

Shah said the continuation of capacity cuts and blank sailings could prolong rate volatility well into Q1 2026, especially around the Chinese New Year and the early January market rebound. He warned that the India–Europe route may face one of its tightest peak periods in recent years, and exporters who plan ahead will be better placed to secure space.

Sarjak Container Lines, which handles special equipment and project cargo across Europe-bound routes, said its update is based on real-time intelligence from ports, carriers and exporters.