Global ocean freight sees diverging trends on key trade routes

Spot freight rates across the Transpacific and Asia–Europe trades are in flux, but the underlying drivers remain very different, according to Niki Frank, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.

Transpacific rates rise ahead of Golden Week
By late August, the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) had recorded its 11th consecutive weekly fall. Yet, Transpacific routes registered a 13.8% increase at the start of September as carriers anticipated Golden Week, capacity cuts, and holiday shipments. China’s Golden Week is an annual holiday that runs from 1st October to 7th October. It marks the National Day of China on 1st October and is one of the country’s busiest travel and shipping periods. Analysts noted that the rise may only be temporary, with weakening U.S. retail demand slowing peak season purchasing. Tariff uncertainty has also added pressure, with import costs rising between 15 and 50% depending on origin.

U.S. import volumes forecast to decline
The Global Port Tracker by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates forecast that U.S. import volumes in 2025 will be 5.6% lower than in 2024. After modest growth in the first half of the year, September volumes are expected to fall by 19.5% year-on-year, with October down by 18.9%.

Asia–Europe trade strong but oversupply drags rates
On the Asia–Europe route, cargo demand has been steady for most of 2025. Container exports from Asia to Europe rose 16% in May to 1.81 million TEUs, marking the highest monthly total ever recorded, according to the Japan International Freight Forwarders Association. Despite this growth, the large amount of vessel capacity has pushed rates down, and reports note that carriers are resisting capacity cuts. Cargo bookings fell between 5 and 20% across Transpacific, Asia–Europe and Latin America in late August.

Potential rate wars and vessel scrapping
Market signals suggest a brewing share battle between carriers and alliances, reminiscent of pre-pandemic rate wars. The September DHL Ocean Freight Market Update noted that vessel demolitions in 2025 are the second-lowest in 20 years, though scrapping is expected to increase shortly.

Schedule reliability shows decline
Schedule reliability has also weakened. Sea-Intelligence reported that reliability slipped in July for the first time since January. Maersk led the top carriers with 80.6%, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 74%, while most others ranged between 60 and 70%. HMM recorded the lowest at 50.7%. Even so, reliability was 13 points higher year-on-year.

Bjoern Schoon, Senior Vice President, Ocean Freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific, noted that slipping reliability adds to the pressure on shippers facing volatile demand. While reliability remains above last year’s levels, the latest trend highlights the fragility of recovery.

Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor adds complexity
The Transpacific market may also shift with Mexico’s growing role in Asia–North America trade. Mexico has launched the Interoceanic Corridor across the Isthmus, linking Atlantic and Pacific ports by rail. According to President Claudia Sheinbaum, the route will see major infrastructure investment in the coming year. At the same time, reports indicate Mexico may raise tariffs on Chinese imports under U.S. pressure, as Washington views its neighbour as a back door for tariff avoidance.

Fragile global freight market
With tariffs, capacity pressures, and slipping reliability, the September DHL Ocean Freight Market Update described the market as a fragile balance, with carriers navigating conditions that resemble a game of “maritime musical chairs.”