Blank sailings and seasonal demand lift India–Europe container rates

Indian exporters shipping cargo to Europe are facing renewed uncertainty which is ultimately resulting in margin pressure this December. Container freight rates have moved up as shipping lines cut capacity, seasonal export volumes increase, and longer shipping routes reduce available space, even though the global container market continues to have excess capacity. Data from Drewry Shipping Consultants’ Cancelled Sailings Tracker shows that carriers have cancelled their 19% of planned sailings on the Asia–Europe trade lane as of 12 December 2025.

Spot container rates on the India–Europe trade have risen sharply in recent weeks, drawing concern from exporters and freight forwarders. Market participants say the increase is not due to a sudden rise in demand, but mainly because shipping lines are managing capacity through blank sailings, combined with seasonal pressures and continued disruption in the Red Sea.

Blank sailings prop up rates despite weak demand
Data from Drewry shows that shipping lines have cancelled a noticeable number of sailings on the key Asia–Europe trade in the weeks leading up to early January. Between mid‑December and mid‑January, carriers have announced the cancellation of 64 sailings out of 709 that had been planned, representing around 9% of scheduled departures on key global container trade lanes, including Asia–Europe services. Most remaining sailings are still due to run as scheduled, but the withdrawals have had the effect of reducing available capacity on the India–Europe and wider Asia–Europe trades. By cancelling sailings and tightening weekly capacity in this way, carriers have been able to support multiple general rate increases, helping to hold up freight rates even though overall demand growth remains uneven.

“Shippers on the crucial India-Europe trade lane are facing unprecedented volatility this December, with spot container freight rates reportedly soaring by 50% to 60%, from $750 per 40 FEU to $1200 per 40 FEU in a matter of just 3 weeks. This sudden and steep rise, evidenced by significant General Rate Increases (GRIs) announced by major carriers for early December, is challenging budgeting and supply chain stability for Indian exporters.” shared Supal Shah, CEO of Sarjak Container Lines, a freight forwarding company.

Freightos, a digital freight rate analytics platform, has also noted that Asia–Europe container rates have held on to recent GRI-led gains despite clear signs of overcapacity in the global fleet. Asia–North Europe rates stood at $2,449 per FEU last week, while Asia–Mediterranean rates were at $3,342 per FEU. Both are well above mid-October levels, when rates had fallen to around $1,700–2,000 per FEU.

Freightos said that over the past two months, rates on Asia–Europe routes have risen gradually due to capacity cuts, even as demand softened. The current firmness reflects shipping lines’ ability to control supply rather than a broad recovery in cargo volumes.

Exporters with contracts insulated, spot market tight
Exporters say the impact of higher rates has not been the same for everyone. Those shipping under long-term contracts and fixed allocations have largely avoided sharp increases, while exporters using spot or premium space are facing higher costs.

“Freight levels have been largely stable between November and December for contract-backed and regular allocations,” said Kaushal Khakar, CEO of Kay Bee Exports, an Indian export manufacturing company. “For the UK, rates have been in the range of $1,650–1,700, while for mainland Europe they are around $1,800–1,900.”

Khakar said exporters who depend on spot bookings are seeing higher charges based on carrier availability and sailing schedules. “Where exporters are forced to use spot or premium space, absorbing part of the cost becomes unavoidable, leading to some margin pressure in price-sensitive commodities,” he said.

He added that shipments have not been cancelled this quarter. “Space availability in Q4 has generally been manageable, though occasional rescheduling or minor rolling has occurred due to operational or port-related factors rather than outright capacity shortages,” Khakar said.

Seasonal grapes cargo adds to pressure
Freight forwarders say seasonal exports are adding to the pressure created by blank sailings. December and January are the main export months for Indian table grapes, which move in refrigerated containers and are shipped in large volumes over a short period.

Europe takes a significant share of India’s grape exports, leading to a temporary rise in demand for reefer containers. This seasonal rush reduces equipment availability and pushes rates higher, especially when vessel capacity is already limited.

Shah said that the combination of blank sailings and perishable cargo demand is common on the India–Europe trade at this time of year. He noted that freight rates had dropped to very low levels in October and November, and the recent increase reflects a correction from those levels rather than an exceptional spike.

Red Sea disruption stretches transit times
Freight rates are also being affected by the continued avoidance of the Red Sea and Suez Canal by most shipping lines. Ships are instead sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, which has increased transit times.

Kartik Shetty, CEO, SVAP Shipping, a freight forwarding and logistics company, said the longer route has extended transit times from around 33 days to nearly 45–50 days. The additional sailing time increases fuel use and operating costs, which are being passed on through freight rates and surcharges.

The effect is being felt across all cargo types. Freight forwarders say higher logistics costs are reducing margins for exporters of low-value and price-sensitive goods, while even higher-value cargo is affected by longer delivery times.

Export planning adjusts, but strategy unchanged
Anshul Singhal, Managing Director of Welspun One and WTC Nhava Sheva by Welspun One, said the recent rise in India–Europe container rates appears to be a short-term disruption rather than a structural shift. He said the movement is largely being driven by seasonal cargo flows, selective blank sailings by shipping lines and geopolitical issues around the Gulf region.

Singhal said that while exporters’ long-term commitment to European markets remains unchanged, short-term volatility is affecting execution. Irregular vessel schedules and blank sailings are prompting exporters to adjust shipment timing and build limited inventory buffers to manage uncertainty. This has led to slightly longer dwell times at origin, but without triggering changes in routing or market strategy.

From a warehousing perspective, Singhal said the current environment highlights the importance of flexible, port-proximate infrastructure that can absorb temporary disruption without adding fixed cost pressure. Overall, he described the situation as cyclical and event-led, with exporters focused on maintaining continuity rather than recalibrating supply chains.

Freightos flags early pre-Lunar New Year demand
Looking at the Asia-Europe lane, Freightos has also reported a modest rise in demand as some shippers begin placing orders ahead of the Lunar New Year earlier than usual. Similar patterns were seen in previous years, when December rates rose due to longer lead times caused by Red Sea diversions.

Some shippers are also building inventory in advance in case of disruption when Red Sea traffic eventually resumes. However, Freightos noted that despite recent increases, Asia–North Europe spot rates are still 54% lower than last December, showing the impact of continued growth in vessel capacity.

Commodities most exposed, volatility likely to persist
Looking at Indian freight forwarders say exporters of commodities and perishables are the most affected, as they have limited ability to pass on higher freight costs to buyers in Europe. Exporters of engineering goods and higher-value manufactured products are better able to absorb freight changes.

Looking ahead, exporters are focusing more on securing space than chasing spot rates. Forwarders say diversifying shipping lines, committing volumes and booking early are becoming more important, especially as India enters the final quarter of its financial year, which is usually a busy shipping period.

With blank sailings continuing, Red Sea disruptions still unresolved and seasonal demand building ahead of the Chinese New Year, industry participants expect freight rate volatility on the India–Europe trade to continue into the first quarter of 2026.

For Indian exporters, the challenge is not only managing freight costs, but operating in a market shaped by tight capacity control, longer transit routes and shifting global trade conditions, which are likely to remain in place in the months ahead.