Asia ocean freight remains fragile in early 2026 amid capacity shifts

Ocean freight across Asia is entering 2026 under pressure from uneven capacity deployment, weak demand on key long-haul routes, and continued congestion across several regional trade lanes, according to Dimerco’s Asia Pacific Monthly Freight Report for January 2026. While global container capacity continues to grow, the report highlights that this growth is not evenly spread across trade routes, shaping market conditions across Asia and beyond.

Global container capacity grows but shifts away from transpacific trade
Dimerco notes that global container capacity expanded by 7.3% year on year to 33.2 million TEUs as of November. However, this additional capacity has largely been directed away from the transpacific trade. Instead, carriers have focused capacity additions on routes linking Asia with the Middle East, the Indian Subcontinent, Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe. As a result, transpacific capacity declined by 2.9%, while transatlantic capacity increased significantly. Intra-Asia and Asia–Latin America capacity growth remained modest, indirectly contributing to ongoing congestion on these routes.

Post-holiday slowdown keeps Northeast Asia ocean freight soft
In Northeast Asia, ocean freight demand remains soft at the start of 2026. Dimerco says the post-holiday slowdown and the ongoing digestion of inventories in the United States and Europe continue to weigh on demand. Taiwan’s ocean freight market is experiencing subdued conditions, with freight rates under pressure, particularly on US West Coast routes. January 2026 is expected to mark the seasonal low point for ocean freight, with only limited short-term support from temporary capacity adjustments.

South Korea is seeing a similar trend. Ocean freight rates to the United States and Europe experienced brief increases due to peak-season blank sailings and general rate increases, but these gains quickly faded as supply continued to exceed demand. At the same time, strong volumes moving between China and Southeast Asia are tightening available space in Korea and lifting local charges. Rate levels tend to remain stronger in the first half of the month before softening later.

China ocean freight shaped by congestion and pre-Chinese New Year demand
Across China, ocean freight conditions vary by region but remain influenced by congestion and seasonal demand ahead of the Chinese New Year. In North China, Intra-Asia ocean freight rates continue to trend upward as port congestion and delays persist. Capacity for transshipments via Singapore, Port Klang and Kaohsiung remains tight, supporting firmer rates into January as pre-Chinese New Year cargo volumes begin to build.

In East China, some carriers are planning to introduce peak season surcharges in January to support prices after rates dropped below cost levels. In South China, early January conditions are relatively stable, but pre-Chinese New Year restocking and late loading are expected to push rates higher later in the month. Hong Kong’s ocean freight market remains stable overall, though congestion and scheduling adjustments continue to affect operations.

Southeast Asia ocean freight tightens ahead of Chinese New Year
In Southeast Asia, ocean freight markets are being shaped by pre-Chinese New Year demand, port congestion and ongoing operational disruptions. Malaysia’s ocean exports are tight, with rising rates and persistent congestion at Port Klang. Dimerco reports that delays at the port are currently around 96 hours, affecting overall export flows.

Thailand’s ocean freight market is tightening on Intra-Asia and China-bound lanes due to pre-Chinese New Year demand, while rates on Europe and US routes are expected to see minor increases, with advance booking required to secure space. Vietnam’s ocean freight market is expected to see flat to slightly higher rates in January 2026 ahead of the Lunar New Year. Early to mid-January booking activity is tightening space and equipment availability, with shippers advised to plan well ahead to avoid last-minute disruptions.

Indonesia’s export demand softened in early December, though inquiries are expected to rise as shippers prepare for Chinese New Year. Ocean freight rates may be influenced by general rate increases, depending on demand levels on long-haul routes. In the Philippines, ocean freight capacity is expected to tighten as Chinese New Year approaches, typically pushing rates higher from late January into February, particularly for shipments bound for China, North Asia, Europe and the US West Coast.

Singapore’s ocean freight market remains relatively stable, with no major space or rate challenges expected in January, though early planning is still recommended.

India ocean freight remains stable despite announced rate increases
In India, ocean freight rates remain broadly stable at the start of 2026, despite the announcement of general rate increases and peak season surcharges for January. Dimerco says the implementation of these increases will depend on market conditions. Fog-related disruptions in northern India may affect inland transport, with shippers advised to allow additional buffer time for rail and road movements.

Red Sea uncertainty and muted recovery outlook weigh on ocean freight
Looking beyond Asia, Dimerco notes that uncertainty continues to surround the potential return of vessels to the Red Sea route. The report warns that any early return could add excess capacity to the market and further disrupt already fragile ocean freight conditions in 2026.

Despite the extension of the US–China tariff truce through November 2026, shippers remain cautious, as clear signs of long-term trade normalisation have yet to emerge. Market consensus suggests that a meaningful rebound in shipping volumes is unlikely in the first half of 2026 and may remain muted for much of the year.

Fragile conditions expected to persist across Asia’s ocean freight market
Overall, Dimerco’s January 2026 report paints a cautious picture for ocean freight across Asia. While capacity continues to grow globally, uneven deployment, soft demand on key routes, seasonal pressures and persistent congestion are expected to keep the market fragile in the months ahead, with shippers required to plan carefully as regional conditions continue to shift.