Global air cargo volumes up 4% in October amid shifting trade trends

Global air cargo volumes rose by 4% in October compared to the same month last year, according to the latest analysis by Xeneta. The increase came despite slower demand between Europe and North America, which fell by 6%. Analysts warned that the decline on this important route could be a sign of tougher times ahead for the global trade market, which directly affects India’s export and import flows as well.

Xeneta said the October data supports its forecast of 3–4% overall demand growth for 2025, but it also revealed clear signs of a cooling market. Global spot rates dropped 3% year-on-year to $2.58 per kilogram, while contract rates fell even faster by 8% to $2.31 per kilogram. The fall in rates reflects a market that is beginning to favour shippers over carriers and forwarders, reversing the trend seen during the last few years.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, said the fall in Europe–North America demand is a “harsh signal” for the wider trade environment. He noted that while overall growth was stronger than expected, the air cargo market is slowing, with capacity rising faster than demand. In October, supply increased 5% year-on-year, marking the second time this year that growth in available capacity outpaced cargo demand.

Across major trade routes, growth during the usual peak season remained muted. From Asia Pacific to Europe, cargo volumes rose by 11% between August and October, lower than the 16% rise seen during the same period last year. Spot rates on this route also rose by 5%, below the 9% growth recorded in 2024.

E-commerce continued to drive Asia–Europe airfreight volumes, with Chinese exports leading the trend. According to China Customs data, low-value and e-commerce sales to Europe surged 62% year-on-year in September, double the growth seen a year earlier. However, e-commerce exports from China to the United States fell 34%, marking the fifth straight monthly decline. This shift highlights the growing strength of Asia–Europe trade lanes, where Indian exports also benefit from shorter transit times and improving demand.

As freighter capacity moves away from the Transpacific route, spot rates from Northeast Asia to Europe slipped 5% year-on-year, a smaller fall compared with the sharp declines seen on Asia–North America lanes. Rates on Northeast and Southeast Asia to Europe routes rose 6% and 7% respectively between August and October, while Transpacific rates saw little or no growth.

Van de Wouw said forwarders are now likely to focus more on cost control as revenues come under pressure. He added that the market is becoming more competitive, and companies may seek to gain share from rivals rather than rely on natural growth. This, he warned, could further reduce freight rates, making the market more favourable for buyers.

He also noted that while shippers may benefit from lower freight costs, this advantage will only matter if product sales remain stable. “Most shippers would rather have 10% higher freight costs and 10% higher sales than 10% lower freight costs and 10% lower sales,” he said.

Van de Wouw added that the airfreight sector had temporarily benefited from global tariff disruptions, but those effects are now easing. “As the noise starts to subside, the industry is being reminded that there is only limited growth in the general freight market, and that is causing lower expectations for 2026,” he said.