Air cargo amid volatility: How India stays on course

The Indian air cargo market reached 3.26 million tonnes in 2024 and is expected to grow to 9.56 million tonnes by 2033, registering a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% during 2025–2033, according to the latest data from IMARC Group. Yet this impressive growth trajectory now faces its most complex operational environment in decades.

The air cargo industry has entered an era where geopolitical volatility is no longer an exception but a fundamental operating condition. From airspace closures and trade sanctions to regulatory upheavals and shifting alliance structures, the disruptions reshaping global trade lanes are forcing cargo carriers, general sales agents (GSA), and logistics providers to fundamentally rethink how they plan capacity, manage networks, and serve customers.

India's logistics sector, positioned at the crossroads of major trade corridors between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, finds itself particularly exposed to these geopolitical tremors.

Airports Authority of India (AAI) airports recorded steady growth in air cargo volumes during April–November FY2025–26, with total freight handling rising 5.2% year-on-year to 2.62 million tonnes. International freight increased 4.4% to 1.62 million tonnes, while domestic cargo grew at a faster pace of 6.5% to 0.99 million tonnes. This sustained growth amid volatility reflects how the industry has catalysed innovation, with service providers building more resilient, agile, and customer-centric operations that can absorb geopolitical shocks without compromising service quality.

The new reality of network planning
The traditional playbook for air cargo capacity planning, built on historical patterns, seasonal forecasts, and relatively stable routing structures, has been rendered inadequate by the current geopolitical landscape. Airlines and their partners now operate in an environment where a single diplomatic incident can close critical airspace overnight, forcing aircraft onto circuitous routes that add hours to transit times and reduce available payload.

“Volatility is now embedded in the global operating environment, and our approach to capacity planning reflects that reality. At Blue Dart, we anchor decisions on real-time visibility, diversified network design, and operational flexibility rather than fixed assumptions. We continuously monitor key trade lanes and dynamically recalibrate routings to account for airspace restrictions, shifting flight paths, or extended transit times,” says Vikram Mansukhani, National Operations Head at Blue Dart.

This shift from static to dynamic planning represents more than a tactical adjustment. It reflects a fundamental recognition that geopolitical risk must be integrated into the core operational framework rather than treated as an external variable. The most successful operators are those building redundancy and flexibility directly into their network architecture, maintaining buffer capacity that can be deployed rapidly when disruptions strike.

For general sales agents representing multiple carriers, this volatility creates both challenges and opportunities. Sharaf Cargo, which works with several international airlines serving the Indian market, has found that transparency and rapid communication have become essential tools for managing disruption.

“The core focus in this situation is timely communicate with our airline partners and also customers to ensure transparency is maintained so that our customers can inform their customers in a timely manner,” says Venkatesh Iyer, Vice President-Commercial at Sharaf Cargo. This emphasis on communication cascades reflects an important evolution in how the industry manages uncertainty, recognising that timely information can be as valuable as additional capacity when disruptions occur.

“Our dedicated freighter operations provide direct control over critical lanes, which is essential for maintaining the consistency required in time-definite services.”
Vikram Mansukhani, Blue Dart

According to Iyer, this temporal distinction shapes how GSAs and their airline partners respond. “The effects of disruptions are short-term and long-term; short-term ones are easier to initiate action, long-term ones need detailed planning, which then enables our airline partners to manage capacity seamlessly. Depending on the availability of aircraft with more capacity, or upgrades are added to the network to ease the situation.”

The industry has witnessed both phenomena in recent years. The closure of Russian airspace to European and North American carriers following geopolitical tensions forced immediate routing changes for cargo flights between Asia and Europe, adding flight time and fuel costs while reducing payload capacity on affected routes. Airlines had to quickly deploy additional frequencies or larger aircraft to maintain effective capacity on these lanes.

Following a conflict last year, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines and aircraft, with India imposing reciprocal restrictions on Pakistani carriers. According to the latest reports, Pakistan has extended the ban on its airspace for Indian aircraft until February 24, 2026 (5.29 am), marking the tenth consecutive monthly extension. India is expected to reciprocate.

This development was also discussed by Gagan Gupta, Head of Cargo Operations at Air India, while speaking at the India International Cargo Show (IICS), held in December 2025 in Mumbai. During the panel discussion, he highlighted that many of Air India’s routes no longer use Pakistani airspace, resulting in higher fuel consumption. He noted that a large part of the airline’s network operates out of Delhi, adding that the airline has been impacted by the situation.

Simultaneously, broader shifts in global trade patterns, driven by supply chain diversification, nearshoring initiatives, and changing manufacturing footprints, are creating sustained changes in cargo demand across different corridors. India achieved its highest-ever electronics exports, valued at $47 billion, IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said in a social media post.

The India-Middle East-Europe corridor has seen growing importance as companies seek alternatives to traditional China-centric supply chains, while Southeast Asian routes have absorbed manufacturing capacity shifted from other regions.

These long-term structural changes require carriers to make substantial commitments, potentially repositioning aircraft, negotiating new slots, and building ground infrastructure to support expanded operations. For GSAs, understanding which disruptions represent temporary shocks versus lasting shifts becomes crucial for advising airline partners on capacity deployment.

“GSAs need to continue working closely with customers and also study the market changes (peak and low season) to ensure that airline partners have the right capacity in the market environment.”
Venkatesh Iyer, Sharaf Cargo.

Managing the customer impact
While airlines and GSAs focus on operational adjustments, the ultimate measure of success remains customer service continuity. Geopolitical disruptions create cascading uncertainties that can undermine the tight supply chain choreography modern businesses depend upon.

“Airspace closure and regulatory changes create a lot of inconvenience to both passengers and cargo, resulting in extra flying time and sometimes restrictions on payload available.

Our customer service teams ensure customers are made aware of these changes in a timely manner,” says Iyer.

This customer-centric communication approach recognises that shippers themselves face downstream commitments and need maximum advance notice to adjust their own operations. A pharmaceutical company shipping temperature-sensitive vaccines, for instance, must know immediately if transit times will extend beyond normal parameters, as this affects cold chain integrity and potentially requires different packaging solutions.

Blue Dart has observed meaningful shifts in what customers prioritise during periods of heightened uncertainty. “We are seeing a clear rise in time-sensitive and high-value shipments, particularly across e-commerce, pharmaceuticals and electronics,” Mansukhani reports. “Customers in these segments prioritise certainty, compliance and secure handling above all else. Predictable transit times, minimal touchpoints and process integrity are critical to maintaining product quality and customer trust.”

The evolution goes beyond simply wanting faster delivery. “In many cases, transparency around shipment status is valued just as much as speed. As supply chains become more complex and customer commitments tighter, the emphasis is shifting toward reliability, real-time tracking and operational precision,” Mansukhani adds.

This customer evolution has important implications for how cargo operators structure their services. Winning business increasingly depends not just on having capacity available but on providing the visibility, consistency, and communication that allow customers to maintain their own service commitments despite external volatility.

Strategic capabilities for an uncertain decade
Looking ahead, the industry consensus suggests geopolitical complexity will intensify rather than diminish. Climate change impacts, resource competition, technological disruption, and shifting power balances all point toward continued volatility in the global trading system. Cargo service providers must therefore build capabilities suited to permanent uncertainty rather than hoping for a return to stability.

For GSAs, this means evolving beyond pure sales representation toward strategic advisory roles. “GSAs need to continue working closely with customers and also study the market changes ( peak and low season ) to ensure that airline partners have the right capacity in the market environment. They should ensure that customers have real-time access to schedules of their shipments and, most importantly, maintain the best relationship with customers,” Iyer emphasises.

Technology investments become critical enablers of this evolution. Real-time tracking, predictive analytics for demand forecasting, automated communication systems, and digital booking platforms all help create the transparency and responsiveness customers now demand. GSAs and carriers that leverage these tools effectively can differentiate themselves in an increasingly commoditised market.

For integrated carriers like Blue Dart, fleet control provides an important buffer against external capacity volatility. “Our dedicated freighter operations provide direct control over critical lanes, which is essential for maintaining the consistency required in time-definite services. This control enables us to safeguard reliability even when external capacity conditions shift. Fleet deployment is reviewed dynamically and aligned to evolving demand patterns, sectoral requirements and network performance indicators,” Mansukhani explains.

Yet even dedicated fleets cannot operate in isolation. Strategic partnerships extend network reach and provide crucial redundancy. “Our interline partnerships play a strategic complementary role,” Mansukhani notes. They provide alternate routings, contingency capacity and operational flexibility when specific corridors experience pressure due to airspace constraints or geopolitical developments.

Building resilience through diversification
The fundamental strategic imperative emerging from the current environment is diversification across multiple dimensions. Network diversification ensures that the closure of one corridor does not cripple operations. Carrier partnerships provide access to alternative capacity when primary options face constraints. Customer portfolio diversification reduces dependence on any single sector or trade lane that might be disproportionately affected by specific disruptions.

For the Indian market, this diversification imperative aligns well with the country's geographic position and increasingly diverse manufacturing and trade profile. India’s emergence as both a manufacturing destination and a consumption market creates natural bidirectional cargo flows that help balance capacity. The country's connections to multiple regional hubs in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia provide routing alternatives when primary corridors face disruption.

The air cargo sector’s response to geopolitical disruption ultimately reflects a maturation of the industry's strategic thinking. Rather than viewing volatility as an aberration to be weathered, leading operators now treat it as a fundamental condition requiring purpose-built capabilities. Success in this environment demands operational agility, technological sophistication, customer-centric communication, and strategic partnerships that collectively create resilience.

As Mansukhani articulates the operating philosophy: “Network stability today depends on agility - maintaining buffer capacity, leveraging multimodal options and strengthening coordination across hubs. Our focus remains on protecting time-definite commitments while optimising cost and resilience. By combining data-led forecasting with disciplined capacity deployment, we ensure continuity even in uncertain geopolitical conditions, enabling customers to plan with confidence despite global disruptions.”

This commitment to maintaining service certainty amid external uncertainty represents the air cargo industry’s core value proposition in an unstable world. For Indian logistics providers serving a rapidly growing economy integrated into complex global supply chains, delivering on this promise will define competitive success in the turbulent decade ahead.

This article was originally published in the Indian Transport & Logistics News' Jan-Feb 2026 issue.