E-commerce logistics market to grow by 11.8% from 2021 to 2026: Ti
The cross-border e-commerce market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 10.65 percent to 2026.
Transport Intelligence's (Ti) latest report, Global e-commerce logistics 2022, shows that rapid growth in the market continues with the growth of 19.9 percent to reach a value of €441.47 billion in 2021, though growth has slowed from 2020's Covid-19 induced peak.
The report foresees that the global e-commerce logistics market to grow at a CAGR of 11.8 percent from 2021-2026 while the cross-border e-commerce market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 10.65 percent to 2026.
"Global e-fulfilment market made up 46.8 percent of the total for e-commerce logistics, with last-mile making up the remaining 53.2 percent in 2021. E-fulfilment service providers have broadened their service offerings to capture more of the e-commerce value chain," reads the release.
Ti's latest data shows that, regionally, in 2021 Asia Pacific is still the biggest e-commerce logistics market, followed by North America and Europe. However, in 2026, Ti forecasts that North America will be the biggest e-commerce logistics market, with the US, Canada and Mexico all experiencing nominal 2021-26 CAGR above the global average.
There are expectations that the Asia Pacific's market growth will be affected by both the Chinese and the South Korean market's 2021-26 CAGR slowing down below not only the global average but the regional average of 6.7 percent too. Their percentage of online retail sales as a percentage of total sales, at 28.0 and 24.5 percent respectively, are testimony of mature markets. In addition, the parcel pricing war we've seen in China has hampered overall growth. However, the two countries will remain amongst the biggest e-commerce logistics markets globally on the back of a high number of e-shoppers.
A similar situation is likely to happen with the UK's e-commerce market, with online sales as a percentage of total retail sales standing at 26.6 percent as of December 2021 as reported by the UK Office of National Statistics. The UK's e-commerce logistics market is also expected to be affected by Brexit too over the next five years, but it will maintain its place as the third e-commerce logistics market globally after the United States and China.
Ti's new research also shows for the first time the growth of the developing cross-border e-commerce logistics market, which is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10.65 percent from 2021-2026. This growth is expected to continue as consumers seek luxury goods that may not be available within their own countries. However, headwinds remain, particularly in terms of compliance with tax and customs regimes surrounding cross-border movements.
The new report also highlights how the e-commerce logistics market is broken down between e-fulfilment and last-mile delivery services. In 2021 the global e-fulfilment market was valued at €235.42 billion and represented a total of 46.8 percent of the market. Whereas the larger last-mile market had a total value of €253.10 billion and constituted the other 53.2 percent of the market.
Ti's latest report also drills down further in to the e-fulfilment market, highlighting the structural changes which have taken hold since the beginning of the pandemic. Showing how fulfilment service providers from LSPs to software providers have broadened their service offering to capture more of the e-commerce value chain.
Ti's Head of commercial development, Michael Clover, said: "In 2021 e-commerce has been one of the key growth sectors for logistics and we've seen some spectacular revenue growth from individual service providers. Overall growth has slowed since 2020, with growth levelling off as the extraordinary conditions for e-commerce growth brought about by the pandemic unwind, but growth is still above pre-pandemic levels. The forecast out to 2026 portrays a maturing market where online retail penetration levels are sustained in the most mature markets between 25-30% and other markets move up to this level."